Trump's Regime Change Strategy Unlikely to Succeed in Iran

Context of US-Iran Tensions

President Donald Trump's statement that the United States is "prepared for action" should Iranian security forces kill peaceful protesters has sparked a strong reaction. Less than 24 hours after this declaration, American special forces attacked Caracas, abducting Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, which intensified psychological pressure on the Islamic Republic of Iran. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi described this stance as "reckless and dangerous."

Comparing the Situations in Venezuela and Iran

However, Iran cannot be compared to Venezuela. The actions in Caracas cannot be replicated in Tehran due to Iran's solid military infrastructure. CIA operations in Caracas were planned for six months and benefited from internal intelligence, facilitating the mission's success. Taking advantage of the chaos within the Venezuelan military, the politician was captured relatively easily. In contrast, Iran has proven to be a far more difficult target for any potential regime change.

The Resilience of the Iranian Regime

The brief conflict between Iran and Israel in June highlighted both the weaknesses and resilience of the Iranian regime. Israel's surprise attacks failed to shake the regime's stability, which managed to launch hundreds of rockets back toward Israel. Furthermore, Iran possesses a vast military with approximately one million active and reserve soldiers, and the Revolutionary Guards command a significant contingent of qualified troops.

Protests in Iran and Their Impact

Recently, Iran has faced massive protests due to economic difficulties. Although 20 protesters have been killed in recent days, no significant defections have been observed among the Revolutionary Guards, suggesting that the regime remains solid. Additionally, history shows that external aggression tends to unite societies rather than fragment them. Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, acknowledged the validity of the merchants' protests, promising that the government is seeking solutions to their issues.

Conclusion

The crises facing Iran are real, but these problems develop slowly and are not based on quick vulnerabilities. The intervention in Venezuela illustrates the limits of American power rather than an applicable model in Iran. It is not feasible for Trump to remove the Iranian regime in the same manner as in Venezuela, and such a project could lead to far greater chaos and bloodshed in the region.