Global Leaders Identify Geoeconomic Confrontation as Top Threat

Geoeconomic Confrontation Poses Major Threat to Global Stability

According to a report from the World Economic Forum (WEF), "geoeconomic confrontation" is deemed the most pressing global threat in the short term. The annual Global Risks report, published on Wednesday, surveyed over 1,300 experts from around the world regarding the greatest risks to global stability.

About 18% of respondents identified "geoeconomic confrontation"—which involves the use of trade, investments, sanctions, and industrial policy as strategic weapons to constrain geopolitical rivalries—as the most likely trigger for a global crisis within the next two years.

Saadia Zahidi, Managing Director at WEF’s annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland, cited rising tariffs, external investment checks, and stricter resource controls as examples of "geoeconomic confrontation." She stated, "When economic policy tools essentially become weapons instead of a foundation for cooperation."

Although the report did not mention specific countries, the rise of this category from ninth place last year to the top reflects a year marked by renewed trade wars among rival powers, fueled by aggressive tariff impositions by the administration of former U.S. President Donald Trump.

The report emphasizes that the risk of geoeconomic confrontation is increasing as the world enters a new "era of competition" where economic tools are more frequently employed as extensions of geopolitical strategy, amid a general retreat from multilateralism.

"Protectionism, strategic industrial policy, and active government influence over vital supply chains signal an increasingly competitive world," the report noted.

Moreover, economic rivalries are becoming more pronounced in the context of concerns over a potential economic recession, rising inflation, and asset bubbles as countries face high debt burdens and volatile markets.

The report ranked disinformation and societal polarization as the second and third most pressing threats in the short term. Environmental concerns were identified as the most significant long-term threat, with extreme weather events, biodiversity loss, and ecosystem collapse evaluated as the most severe risks over the next decade.

Peter Giger, head of risk management at Zurich Insurance Group, emphasized that a "complex composition of interconnected risks" requires considerable attention, indicating that serious threats such as risks to critical infrastructure appear to be "underestimated."

The report assessed disruptions to critical infrastructure, such as energy, water, and digital systems, as the 22nd greatest risk in the next two years and the 23rd in the next decade, calling it "a dangerous oversight."