Challenges Face US in Conducting Swift Attack on Iran

Analysis: The Challenges of an American Strike on Iran

Illiberal systems often seem the most permanent just before they change. However, moments of unrest can create a different illusion: that the system is on the brink of dramatic collapse. With Iran rocked by unprecedented protests against its leadership, it is tempting to imagine that the air power of the United States could deliver a final blow.

This temptation ignores how the Islamic Republic actually survives. Coercive cohesion is the bedrock of the system: the ability of parallel security and political institutions to act together, even as legitimacy wanes. When this cohesion is maintained, the system absorbs shocks that would cause more conventional states to crumble.

Iran is not a singular pyramid with one man at the top. It is a hierarchical, interconnected state: overlapping power centers around the office of the Supreme Leader, the Revolutionary Guards, intelligence agencies, religious guardians, and a patronage economy. In such a system, removing a single node, even the most symbolic one, does not necessarily lead to the collapse of the structure; redundancy and alternative chains of command are design features.

This is why Trump's dilemma is relevant. He finds himself between neoconservatives who desire regime change through force and an