European Commission estimates Ukraine will need €135.7 billion in external support for 2026–2027 — even if the war ends

Ukraine will require €135.7 billion in external financing during 2026–2027, according to a European Commission letter to EU member states published by Politico. The estimate assumes that the conflict with Russia ends sometime in 2026 — yet the financial gap remains vast.

The projected requirement is broken down as follows:

• €52.3 billion for macro-financial needs, such as public salaries, pensions, economic stability and basic state functions;

• €83.4 billion for military needs, defence reconstruction and continued modernization of Ukraine’s armed forces.

The Commission warns that despite unprecedented Western assistance, Ukraine will face a major funding shortfall that cannot be bridged without new financial sources. As a solution, Brussels recommends accelerating the expropriation of frozen Russian assets, a politically sensitive proposal that has divided EU capitals.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán recently stated that the European Union has already spent €180 billion on supporting Ukraine over the past three years. He criticised EU plans for an additional €40-billion package, noting that this would represent “nearly a quarter of the entire EU budget for the next seven years.”

At the same time, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said that Ukraine alone will need tens of billions of euros in 2026 to sustain its defence efforts and maintain basic government operations.

The European Commission’s letter highlights the long-term financial impact of the war and underscores that the economic burden on Europe and its partners will continue well beyond the cessation of active fighting. For EU leaders, the challenge now is to secure sustainable financial mechanisms while maintaining political unity and public support.