New Iraqi Parliament Set to Convene Amid Political Uncertainty

Baghdad, Iraq – The inaugural session of the newly elected Iraqi parliament is scheduled for Monday, a highly anticipated event as Iraq grapples with the significant question of who will fill the parliamentary seats and lead the next government.

The question of who will be prime minister is critical, particularly for the current prime minister, Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, whose powers were curtailed in November by the Federal Supreme Court. In seeking new alliances to address a fragmented electoral bloc, he must demonstrate his capability to lead the country through complex domestic and international challenges.

Returning to Framework

According to a source from the Coalition for Reconstruction and Development, al-Sudani aimed to utilize the time between election day and the first session of the new parliament to foster a negotiation dynamic. He attempted to enhance his political base via an independent electoral list, securing approximately 46 of the 329 seats. However, the Supreme Court's ruling compelled him to revert to the Coordination Framework of Shiites, the alliance that nominated him four years ago. Now, he loses the advantages gained by the RCD and must submit to the leadership of the SCF, many of whom do not hold seats in parliament and function as external intermediaries.

Rise of Armed Groups

The SCF controls approximately 180 deputies, of which 80-90 belong to armed groups and factions aligned with Iran. This significant presence of pro-Iran, anti-West armed groups in the government formation process places Iraq on a potential collision course with the European Union, Gulf states, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

As the parliament convenes, members will take their oaths, and the parliament president will be elected, likely a Sunni consensus candidate, according to the muhasasa system. A vote for the presidency will follow, with a Kurdish candidate expected under the same tradition. The president will then nominate the largest Shiite bloc – the SCF – for the position of prime minister.

Government Formation Negotiations

Despite the call before the elections from the president of the Supreme Judicial Council, Faiq Zaidan, for politicians to adhere to the constitutional deadline for government formation, a maximum period of 90 days, historical precedents do not favor this. In 2021, it took over 300 days to form a government. It remains to be seen how Iran's role will influence this dynamic, given the regional challenges currently at play.